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ASML's Performance Takes a Hit, Is It Time to Bottom Fish? As the Global Semiconductor Market Cools Down, Can AI Be a Lifeline?

2024-10-16

Local time Tuesday, ASML (ASML.US) plummeted during trading, with a drop exceeding 17% at one point.


On October 16th, ASML's financial report, originally scheduled for release on Wednesday, was unexpectedly published the night before. 

The report showed that in the third quarter of this year, ASML's net sales amounted to 7.5 billion euros, higher than the expected target, 

mainly due to increased sales of DUV lithography systems and installed management sales. The gross margin for the quarter was 50.8%,

 lower than the previous quarter; however, ASML's new order amount reached 2.6 billion euros, nearly half of the market's expected 5.4 billion euros.


Can ASML be bottom fished?


ASML issued an official statement, stating that the financial report was mistakenly published early due to a "technical glitch."

According to ASML, there are two reasons for the poor financial performance: First, the recovery of the semiconductor market is lower than expected, 

with weakened demand from upstream customers; second, the revenue share has decreased due to the United States' export controls on China.


Finally, can ASML be bottom fished? What about the future of global chips? Handel Jones, CEO of International Business Strategies, pointed out

 that although the chip industry may face some challenges in the short term, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, especially with the 

demand for AI chips and AI storage chips continuing to be strong.


Recently, Samsung Electronics' third-quarter financial report showed an operating profit of $6.8 billion, lower than market expectations, 

mainly due to the decline in chip sales. Morgan Stanley recently downgraded the target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, 

and warned in a report that the price of memory chips may fall, with the report being named "Winter is Coming."


However, the performance of memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology exceeded market expectations, which seems to refute the notion 

of a semiconductor industry winter. Some analysts believe that in the memory chip market, although the demand for traditional DRAM 

and NAND has declined, the demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) remains strong, mainly driven by AI technology.


TSMC's performance also supports this view, with analysts expecting the company's net profit to grow by 40% in the third quarter, 

reaching $9.27 billion. Companies such as Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are all launching new products, all of which are 

produced by TSMC. The entire semiconductor market is indeed not very prosperous, and AI has become one of the few bright spots in the technology industry. 

ASML's existence is a global rarity, and its bottom-fishing value becomes a friend of time, which is applicable in the US stock market.